http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1948253&postcount=1005
Describing the diamond pattern: The next important thing to consider should be the sequence of the moves inside the pattern. For example, two consecutive touches of the resisting line taking place between two touches of the opposite support in a triangle are not the same as the top-bottom-top-botton sequence. Same BTW is true for channels. The trendline that has more touches than the opposite one has a bigger breaking probability. Forth approach to a trend line is a guaranteed break, either instant or delayed (with some rare exceptions but limited exception that would take too long to explain here). The line with three touches always works as a magnet. No matter how far the market goes initially in the opposite direction it always comes back for a break. It should also be remembered that the market has an absolute memory and doesn't "forget" anything that happened in the past. Such lines I call "unpaid debts" and use them mostly when the market turns around and goes towards them because the break will be imminent. Ascending resistances and descending supports are not as reliable as decsending resistances and ascending supports. First two should not be used for opening new positions but only for taking profits ahead of them. This was just the bottom line and now we can turn out attention to the chart you have posted. In this particular case the lower trendline comes at 1.5677 on Monday and rises 20-21 pips each next day. It presents an opportunity to go long ahead of it and to switch to shorts if broken. In all trading cases the stops have to be placed outside of the intraday traded range. So, if the market comes to the support line a long position can be taken and then the stops must be placed below the line. If later is makes a break of the support a position can be reversed but the stops for this new position can only be placed above the intraday high. In order to take out those stops the market has to change the direction of the main move of the day and to break a resistance that had significance not last day, week, month or century but has been freshly made and established as such during the very same trading day.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
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